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Welcome to the new home of Strategicon for 2011

In Uncategorized on May 10, 2011 by Filmosaur

Strategicon has evolved as a summer project, itself emerging from the briefly-active Realist’s Guide to the Galaxy. After repeated frustrations with Blogger/Blogspot’s text editing, we’ve moved over to WordPress. In addition to a summer of new content, we’re also improving old posts retroactively by adding categories and tags to make searching easier. Please come back and see us often.

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Fighting over Crumbs

In Economics on August 5, 2010 by Filmosaur Tagged: , , ,

The world has not recently experienced the sort of cutthroat national competition for natural resources that was a relatively common source of conflict during the long first era of industrialization from the mid-19th to the mid-20th Centuries. As Europe and the United States developed into industrial economies, their governments quickly recognized that secure supplies of those resources vital to maintaining growth had to be found. For the U.S., this was not a problem: the vast and barely-tapped resources of the young country kept industry well-supplied with virtually all it needed to continue production. European states, however, did not generally have the luxury of ample supplies of the raw material of industry within their borders; the result was a major impetus behind late-19th Century imperialism. European governments raced each other to secure every unclaimed corner of the globe, whether or not they knew what economic value it held. The competition for Southeast Asian rubber and West African palm oil, Egyptian cotton and Arabian oil to feed the machines became a race between states whose governments believed that they must continue to grow if they were to survive in the face of their ever-expanding rivals. The European imperial powers were moving toward a collective corner of industrial demand outstripping supply by the early decades of the 20th Century.

One might be inclined to wonder if the European leaders had ever heard of simply trading for what they required rather than going to such extravagant lengths to gather it themselves. Indeed, the years preceding the First World War saw global trade rapidly expanding, as ever-larger numbers of steamships moved cargoes around the world to the massive factories of Europe and the teeming markets of Asia, Africa, and South America. Yet even as trade was providing for unprecedented economic expansion, governments worried increasingly about the potential disaster that loomed over every industrialized state: What if our supplies are cut off? Scattered pessimists argued that nothing short of an economic cataclysm would befall them, while even the more numerous optimists understood that the increasingly perilous international diplomatic situation could erupt into war, though many of the latter argued that such a conflict would be short enough that shipping would not be seriously disrupted.

Rising international tension and increasing concern for economic security among the industrial powers were two sides of the same coin, and each fed into the other. While Britain considered the merits of “imperial preference,” a system designed to create a great interlocking economic network in an era of increasing pressure for autonomy among its various imperial holdings, Germany argued that it must be allowed to pursue its rightful “place in the sun” among the world’s great empires, as befitted such an economically powerful and dynamic state. But for each, along with France and Japan, and even the free-trading United States, there was the growing realization that the existing order could only survive as long as the sources of economic stability – natural resources and access to markets – remained secure. In order to do that, military and especially naval strength had to be maintained, strategically important territories acquired, and every effort made to render trade uninterruptible in the event of war or shortage.

As it happened, the privations of the First World War were largely the result of the war itself, not the cause of its outbreak. Yet the effects were clear long before they began to tell. The Allies imposed a naval blockade on the Central Powers design to deprive both their war machine and their industries of the things they needed to survive and triumph. The Central Powers sought to isolate the European Allies from the American market that increasingly kept them supplied with the raw materials and manufactured goods that allowed them to continue the struggle. The British North Sea blockade and the German submarine offensives were the most prominent of these efforts, and the former was far more successful than the latter; the result was economic disaster for Germany, leading to the end of the Kaiser’s regime in 1918, civil disorder, insurrection, and more than a decade of political and economic instability, with complete collapse only forestalled by infusions of American cash to keep the Weimar government afloat.

The lessons were clear: those states that were able to keep open their lines of supply to those things that allowed their economies to continue functioning during war were victorious; those that could not were destined for isolation and eventual defeat. It should have come as no surprise then that when the cycle repeated itself several decades later, the new rising powers of Germany and Japan felt they had little choice but to claw their way into the first rank of Powers by force if they were not to remain forever economically, and thus politically, inferior. There would be little point in developing their economies if they could not ensure that they could be protected; another British blockade of Germany, a reduction in American supplies to Japan would be all that was needed to render them immediately vulnerable. The First World War had shown that these threats were not idle speculation; industry and trade would be targeted directly, and total economic warfare was now something with which every industrial power had to reckon. The onset of the Depression in 1929 and the tariff war that broke out soon thereafter did nothing to assuage concern.

Securing the economic basis of the nation’s prosperity and power was among the foremost considerations of the interwar period for the rising powers. The status quo Powers were focused on maintaining the system as it existed; Britain had worked to focus on securing their overseas trade (though “imperial preference” did not materialize as state doctrine) and the United States was able to thrive for years with only domestic supplies of raw materials and an ever-expanding domestic marketplace (though this slowed considerably with the closing of the frontier in 1890). While not entirely self-sufficient, American and British (and to a lesser extent French) dominance of the global economy meant that their industries were relatively safe from international disruption. For the totalitarian states of the 1930s, however, the status quo meant perpetual weakness. Without directly challenging the Powers that controlled the world’s trade, there was little hope that they too could ensure their economic survival when it came under threat. They saw security in autarky, building empires that were beyond the reach of their rivals, empires that would stand the test of war.

Hitler saw both the strength and weakness of Germany in its continental position. In order to fulfill his vision of a secure Third Reich, he looked to establish a contiguous Eurasian empire, safe from the maritime dominance of the Royal Navy and the distant United States. The vast reaches of Soviet Russia held the key to Germany’s long-term economic security; Hitler viewed it as analogous to the way that the British looked to India as the cornerstone of their global empire (in Hitler’s own words, “Russia will be our India”), and drew heavily on American westward expansion in his conception as well. He knew that Germany must be able to feed its people, supply its factories and arm its soldiers if it were to resist the challenges that lay before it. Before colonization and settlement could occur, however, Germany’s continental rivals had to be eliminated as threats, and more vital resources secured. Only then could the building of a secure empire begin in earnest.

Japan, as an island state, held its naval strength as the first precondition of securing an empire that could feed its industry, but that introduced challenges of its own: a modern navy needed steel and oil in regular supply and prodigious quantities, neither of which Japan had. The push in to mainland Asia began early, with the Sino-Japanese War at the end of the 19th Century and the Russo-Japanese War in the first years of the 20th establishing Japan as the dominant regional power. But these were merely strategic maneuvers that facilitated acquisition of the the real prizes: the mineral and agricultural wealth of China. Beginning with the Manchuria Incident in 1931, and the invasion of China in 1937, Japan moved to actively secure access to the commodities increasingly vital to its industrial growth. The attack on the United States and Britain in December of 1941 was intended primarily to cover the drive to the south to secure the petroleum supplies of the Dutch East Indies, made all the more urgent by the disruption of oil supplies from America caused by the Roosevelt Administration’s increasing concern over Japan’s activities in China.

In both cases the conundrum is obvious: rising Powers must secure the resources they need to continue to grow, but in doing so they are very likely to threaten the interests of the existing Powers. This is particularly problematic in times of global economic difficulty, as well as when shortages of particularly important commodities loom. The Cold War saw very limited competition for most resources, and the peculiarity of the bipolar power structure rendered what competition there was relatively one-sided; for all the Western conflict with the Middle East during the Cold War, there was never any serious question as to which side was the more powerful, or that oil must continue to flow to Western markets. The self-imposed exclusion of the Soviet Union from much of the global economic system rendered inappropriate the experiences of traditional competitive relationships between Great Powers.

All that has changed. With the collapse of the Soviet Union, the end of the Cold War, and the rise of China and India, the resurgence of Russia, and even the (ponderous) movement toward an actually unified European Union, the competitive nature of the international system looks poised to return with a vengeance. The only truly status quo Power remaining is the United States, and it is far less economically secure than it once was. Meanwhile, China is acquiring huge mining concerns in Australia and investing in African oil and Russia is leveraging its ample energy supplies for political advantage. Conflicts over the mineral wealth of such obscure places as the Spratly Islands (claimed by several Southeast Asian states as well as China, and thought to have significant oil deposits) are beginning to emerge as points of tension. Rising middle classes in developing states will demand greater access to manufactured goods, increasing economic pressures on their own governments as well as demand for production, and thus raw materials. Global economic development is not without risk; indeed, history suggests that the movement of states toward economic parity with the leading Powers will invariably lead to conflict. In difficult times, when there are more parties competing for limited supplies and limited markets, the pressure for success may escalate quickly and dramatically, as the alternative is not seen as anything short of existential national defeat.

Articles

Leaks vs. Leaks

In Politics on July 26, 2010 by Filmosaur Tagged: ,

The recent release of thousands of pages of classified material on the Afghan War by WikiLeaks has prompted the inevitable comparison with the Pentagon Papers leaked by Daniel Ellsberg to the New York Times in 1971. While both incidents encompassed the unauthorized release of secret papers to a journalistic source, the comparisons should end there.

Even a cursory examination of the WikiLeaks material shows that it is basically unprocessed data documenting the day-to-day activities of U.S. forces in Afghanistan. These reports are only of value once placed in context by analysts who understand both the intentions of the forces involved and that of the commanders running the show. Civilian readers will likely be somewhat confused by much of the material, and probably bored as well. For example, the narrative of Ref. ID AFG20040101n2 reads:

USSF FINDS CACHE IN VILLAGE OF WALU TANGAY: USSF CONDUCTED A MEET AND GREET IN THE VILLAGE OF WALU TANGAY. USSF MEMBERS WERE APPROACHED BY A LOCAL BOY WHO SPOKE OF A CACHE IN A CAVE ON A NEARBY HILL. USSF MEMBERS INVESTIGATED AND FOUND A CACHE CONSISTING OF THIRTEEN 82MM MORTAR ROUNDS, SIXTY RPG ROUNDS, FIFTEEN BOXES 12.7X108MM AMMO (85 ROUNDS PER BOX), FIVE BOXES NON-DISINTEGRATING 12.7X108MM LINK, AND ONE DSHK BARREL LOCATED IN A CAVE AT 350107.26N 0705513.00E. USSF CONFISCATED THE AMMO. THE REST WAS BLOWN IN PLACE.

Ref. ID AFG20040309n11 is similarly scintillating:

TF 1-501 PIR REPORTS 2X LNS DETAINED DISTRIBUTING ANTI-AMERICAN LITERATURE IVO KHOWST. S- 2X LN DETAINED,A- DISTRIBUTING PROPAGANDA VIA NIGHT LETTERS, L- 42S WB 854895, T- 090539ZMAR04. LOCAL NATIONALS DETAINED BY B/1-501, ALONG WITH KHOWST POLICE, FOR DISTRIBUTING ANTI-AMERICAN PROPAGANDA IN THE FORM OF NIGHT LETTERS STATING ANYONE WORKING WITH THE AMERICANS WILL BE KILLED. LOCAL NATIONALS ARE CURRENTLY BEING QUESTIONED AT FOB SALERNO BY THT. NFI

There are some 91,000 such reports. This is not to say that there is no relevant information to be gleaned from these, but simply to note that they provide only the raw data of an ongoing conflict. Readers who wish to actually understand them need to have enough background in military operations to grasp what is relevant and what is not, and more importantly to be able to identify trends and correlate data with the bigger picture of strategy and operations.

By contrast, the Pentagon Papers was the popular name given to a single report entitled “United States-Vietnam Relations, 1945-1967: A Study Prepared by the Department of Defense.” This 4,100 page document presented the polar opposite of the WikiLeaks Afghan reports: a cohesive study of a twenty-two year period incorporating analysis with reports from both the military and civilian leadership, providing as comprehensive a picture of the situation between the two countries as had ever existed to that time. Consider a brief excerpt from Volume 4, Chapter 2: Section C of Part I. PHASE II, JULY 1965-MAY 1966:

C. DEVELOPMENT OF A CONCEPT

1. Concept for Vietnam

By late August 1965, the JCS had developed and coordinated a Concept for Vietnam which was set out in JCSM 652-65 dated 27 August. The heart of the concept is summarized as follows:

a. The objective in Vietnam, as stated by NSAM 288, dated 17 March 1964, is a stable and independent noncommunist government.

b. The major problems to be dealt with in the conduct of the war are:

(1) The continued direction and support of Viet Cong operations by the DRV, infiltration from the north, and the apparent attendant Viet Cong capability to provide materiel support and to replace heavy personnel losses.
(2) The continued existence of a major Viet Cong infrastructure, both political and military, in the RVN.
(3) The greater growth rate of Viet Cong strength as compared to that of the South Vietnamese ground forces.
(4) The continued loss of LOCs, food-producing areas, and population to Viet Cong control.
(5) The lack of a viable politico/economic structure in the RVN.
(6) The threat of CHICOM intervention or aggression in Southeast Asia and elsewhere in the Western Pacific.

c. The basic military tasks, of equal priority, are:

(1) To cause the DRV to cease its direction and support of the Viet Cong insurgency.
(2) To defeat the Viet Cong and to extend GVN control over all of the RVN.
(3) To deter Communist China from direct intervention and to defeat such intervention if it occurs.

d. The US basic strategy for accomplishing the above tasks should be:
to intensify military pressure on the DRV by air and naval power; to destroy significant DRV military targets, including the base of supplies; to interdict supporting LOCs in the DRV; to interdict the infiltration and supply routes into the RVN; to improve the combat effectiveness of the RVNAF; to build and protect bases; to reduce enemy reinforcements; to defeat the Viet Cong, in concert with RVN and third country forces; and to maintain adequate forces in the Western Pacific and elsewhere in readiness to deter and to deal with CHICOM aggression. By aggressive and sustained exploitation of superior military force, the United States/Government of Vietnam would seize and hold the initiative in both the DRV and RVN, keeping the DRV, the Viet Cong, and the PL/VM at a disadvantage, progressively destroying the DRV war-supporting power and defeating the Viet Cong. The physical capability of the DRV to move men and supplies through the Lao Corridor, down the coastline, across the DMZ, and through Cambodia must be reduced to the maximum practical extent by land, naval, and air actions in these areas and against infiltration-connected targets. Finally, included within the basic US military strategy must be a buildup in Thailand to ensure attainment of the proper US-Thai posture to deter CHICOM aggression and to facilitate placing US forces in an advantageous logistic position if such aggression occurs.

Or this from Volume 2, Chapter 1, Section I:

Summary and Analysis

When Kennedy took office, the prospect of an eventual crisis in Vietnam had been widely recognized in the government, although nothing much had yet been done about it. Our Ambassador in Saigon had been sending worried cables for a year, and twice in recent months [in September 1960 and again in December] had ended an appraisal of the situation by cautiously raising the question of whether the U.S. would not sooner or later have to move to replace Diem. Barely a week after taking office, Kennedy received and approved a Counter-Insurgency Plan (CIP) which, at what seems to have been a rather leisurely pace, had been going through drafting and staffing for the previous eight months.

The CIP was a most modest program by the standard we have become accustomed to in Vietnam. It offered Diem financial support for a 20,000 man increase in his army, which then stood at 150,000; plus support for about half of the counter-guerrilla auxiliary force known as the Civil Guard. In return, it asked Diem for a number of reforms which appeared to the American side as merely common sense–such as straightening out command arrangements for the army under which 42 different officials directly responsible to Diem (38 province chiefs, 3 regional commanders, and a Chief of Staff) shared operational command.

The CIP was superseded in May by an enlarged version of the same program, and the only longer term significance the original program held was that it presumably offered the Administration a lesson in dealing with Diem (and perhaps, although it was not foreseen then, a lesson in dealing with Vietnamese governments generally). The negotiations dragged on and on; the U.S. military and eventually most of the civilians both in Saigon and Washington grew impatient for getting on with the war; Diem promised action on some of the American points, and finally even issued some decrees, none of which were really followed up. For practical purposes, the list of “essential reforms” proposed as part of the CIP, including those Diem had given the impression he agreed to, could have been substituted unchanged for the list of reforms the U.S. requested at the end of the year, with equal effect, as the quid pro quo demanded for the much enlarged U.S. aid offer that followed the Taylor Mission.

These are merely small pieces of a thorough analytical examination of American policy in Vietnam, including extensive use of high-level reports written by those responsible for running the war. While it may not be considered a great page-turner by many readers, anyone willing to read it would certainly be able grasp the both overarching principles U.S. leaders employed in dealing with Vietnam and the results of their policies.

While neither represents a complete picture, it should be understood that not all leaks are created equal. The WikiLeaks material is most notable for the controversial method of its release, while the information contained therein is fairly mundane and offers little insight into the conflict. The Pentagon Papers, by contrast, were most noteworthy for the contents of the report itself, which suggested that what was being publicly reported in America was at odds with what the government knew to be true. In short, then, reports of the sort put forward by WikiLeaks would at best constitute nothing more than an appendix to an analysis of the type leaked by Ellsberg. Anyone who is inclined to read both will quickly discover that their understanding of the war in Vietnam is likely to have been expanded considerably more than that of the Afghan conflict.


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The Increasing Allure of Nukes

In Warfare on July 23, 2010 by Filmosaur Tagged: , ,

Nuclear weapons are commonly viewed as the ultimate military capability that a state may possess. Those countries that have developed and constructed nuclear weapons, no matter how limited their numbers or capabilities might be, are set apart from those that have not in the calculations of leaders and foreign policy establishments charged with managing conflict. The possession of even a single functional device is often assumed to mark a quantum shift in that state’s global standing and military position. Yet if one looks beneath the surface and examines more carefully the realistic options available of nuclear-armed nations, the limitations are found to be quite significant for those countries with small, newly-developed nuclear arsenals. Indeed, minimal nuclear capability may in some ways serve to impose restrictions on policy options that might not otherwise be present while at the same time creating external pressures that might not otherwise develop. In the interest of understanding the strategic implications of states with limited nuclear capabilities on diplomacy and conflict, we must examine the effect of development on the state’s international relations, the conditions in which such weapons might be used, and what exactly can be expected from both their employment as well as mere possession.

Ascendancy to the small circle of nuclear-armed states brings with it considerably baggage. States which have developed their capabilities have done so either outside of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) or, if signatories, in direct contravention of it. Neither condition is likely to contribute to widespread support among the global community, at the very least introducing unwelcome complication, and opening the door to possible sanctions or other measures intended to punish the transgression. Naturally, this is likely to be haphazard and contingent upon the specific circumstances of the current balance of power; for example, the United States has made extraordinary efforts to assist India in normalizing their nuclear standing (thus making available to it civilian nuclear technology) in spite of that country’s nuclear program operating outside the NPT, with the U.S. intention being to strengthen diplomatic ties in the interest of longer-term security interests. It is of course much easier to overlook the violations of a potential ally half a world away than those of a known enemy or potential short-term rival.

Known nascent programs, such as Iran’s, are more likely to be targets of direct action, as the possibility of arresting the development prior to weaponization greatly simplifies the equation (though, with a nod to Clausewitz, one should not mistake simplicity for ease). Israeli strikes against the Iraqi and Syrian programs forestalled development of nuclear weapons in those countries, allowing Israel to maintain regional dominance in the nuclear arena, a cornerstone of her security strategy. In lieu of military action, stiff sanctions and other measures short of war may also be employed. If the state or coalition doing so are militarily dominant in relation to the nuclear aspirant, these efforts may be carried out in relative security (though not without consequence); in the face of a direct challenge, the aspiring nuclear power can be counted on to redouble its efforts in what amounts to a race to see if the sanctions can have a meaningful effect before the development process is completed. Even if it succeeds in building weapons, the costs of doing so under such external pressures will likely be severe. For all of these reasons, states seeking nuclear weapons have strong inducements to keep their programs secret for as long as possible.

The nuclear weapons themselves are only part of the equation; delivery systems must also be available if the state is to have meaningful nuclear capability. Surface-to-surface missiles are the most common method for delivery, as they have traditionally posed the greatest difficulty for defensive systems (though this is changing somewhat) and do not require the extensive air force capabilities necessary to contest air superiority in order to reliably deliver weapons to the target by that method. Submarine-launched missiles offer the most secure method of maintaining a nuclear force for both offensive and deterrent purposes, but this technology is not generally available to new nuclear powers. The range of whatever delivery systems are in use will dictate to a significant degree the extent to which the state will be able to employ (actively or passively) its nuclear weapons; conversely, states outside that range that may oppose the new nuclear state may increase the level of their resistance with relatively limited concern, though regional allies may find themselves more exposed.

Assuming a successful program, the newly-minted nuclear power will now have to determine what it may do with its new capabilities. To have acquired militarily-viable nuclear weapons, that is to say weapons that can be delivered effectively and reliably against relevant targets, is a significant achievement, but it is not the same as having an arsenal capable of offering the full gamut of nuclear strategic options. While a great deal of thought was dedicated to nuclear strategy during the Cold War, and some very useful theories and doctrines generated, little of this is relevant to a state with a handful of low- to medium-yield nuclear weapons, especially if its rivals have larger and more versatile nuclear arsenals.

The Cold War calculus applied to nuclear war incorporated such sophisticated approaches as counter-force and counter-value targeting, secure second-strike capability, and eventually mutually-assured destruction; for a state possessing perhaps a few dozen warheads, many of these options simply do not exist. Counter-force targeting, aimed at an opponent’s nuclear weapons, is not likely to be possible, especially if that opponent has dispersed their warheads and has multiple methods of delivery available. Counter-value strikes against cities, intended to raise the cost of fighting to unacceptable levels, are the only realistic option for the small nuclear power, and then only if its delivery systems have sufficient reach. Counter-value targeting works primarily as a deterrent, in effect holding an opponent’s population centers hostage as a guarantee against an attack. If, however, this option is exercised, the state will draw the wrath of both its opponent and likely that of a significant portion of the world community. Having expended even one weapon thusly is very likely to provoke retaliation on a scale it cannot hope to match. Lacking both sufficient first-strike capability to inflict catastrophic losses on an opponent and its allies (while casualties and costs would be massive, catastrophic loss must be defined here as sufficient to persistently obstruct the ability of a state to function economically, politically, and militarily), and sufficient survivable second-strike capability to deter massive retaliation for limited nuclear first use, mutually-assured destruction does not apply in this case. In effect, then, any use, and particularly first-use, of nuclear weapons by a small nuclear power against another nuclear power would very likely amount to self-assured destruction.

If first-use against another nuclear power is simple suicide, it must be inferred that the possession of nuclear weapons is viewed as a primarily defensive measure to be held as a final reserve to prevent existential national defeat, or that they are intended to attain dominance over non-nuclear rivals. The logic of the former case is self-evident, if fatalistic: a government facing obliteration in a non-nuclear contest may attempt to forestall the result by escalating the conflict in order to so dramatically increase the cost to its opponent that unconditional surrender or regime change become less attractive than simply ending the conflict, or simply to reap final vengeance on an otherwise-victorious rival. Obviously such an approach is extremely high-risk, but for a state in extremis this risk is no greater than accepting otherwise inevitable defeat. If a state is the first in a region to seek nuclear weapons, doing so will probably trigger a race by regional rivals to develop arsenals of their own in the interest of maintaining the balance of power. This has been seen most notably in the acquisition of nuclear weapons by India and Pakistan, and previously in the early years of the Cold War. If the regional rivals succeed in building viable nuclear arsenals of broadly similar size and capability, the result may in fact be ultimately stabilizing; the possibility of a nuclear exchange has historically had the effect of causing leaders to willingly limit conflict so as to minimize the risk of escalation. The proliferation of weapons to additional states, however, must nonetheless mathematically increase the chance that they will be used.

We must infer then that those states that acquire nuclear weapons perceive a threat significant enough to endanger the existence of the government, and that the threat is compelling enough to offset the diplomatic and economic costs involved with development. Once acquired, nuclear weapons are only of practical value if they can be used to intimidate non-nuclear opponents, or to prevent nuclear-capable rivals from taking action. The possession of roughly equal nuclear arsenals will likely act to reduce the chances of all-out war between rival states, as neither will be willing to risk the costs of either first-use or being the victim of a first-strike, given that both will be restricted to counter-value targeting strategy. The moment of greatest danger for the nuclear aspirant, then, is the period between the decision to develop nuclear weapons and the point at which they become operational, when vulnerability to both nuclear and non-nuclear opponents peaks because they may seek to disrupt the effort before it succeeds. For non-nuclear rivals of a newly nuclear-capable state, the risk persists for as long as the imbalance remains. This of course encourages them to develop nuclear capability of their own, or to at least build stable alliances with nuclear powers. The inevitable conclusion is that, in lieu of a strong and reliable nuclear partner, states facing potential regional nuclear rivals will seek such capability of their own. During the Cold War, the presence of two nuclear superpowers made alliance with one or the other the preferred option for the vast majority of states. In the increasingly divided multipolar global system, however, with power becoming more diffuse and shared more equally among more states, governments are ever more likely to perceive that they must look after their own security, as the threats multiply and alliances become less stable. For all its drawbacks, indigenous nuclear capability provides, if nothing else, reasonable assurance that the regime will not be destroyed from without, and this alone is enough to make it increasingly desirable in a dangerous and uncertain world.


													

Articles

We’d like to help, really we would, but…

In Diplomacy on July 9, 2010 by Filmosaur Tagged: , ,

Recent candid comments by the Ambassador of the United Arab Emirates to the United States first reported by the Washington Times have shown that the problem of a nuclear-armed Iran is very much on the minds of other nations in the region, backpedaling and official “clarifying” statements to the contrary notwithstanding. The ambassador’s statement was not formal, which explains its unusual clarity and directness. Simply put, he indicated that a military strike might be necessary in order to halt Iranian nuclear development. In no uncertain terms that he recognized that there would be blowback in the form of economic, social and political pressure, but that all of these short-term issues were less dangerous than the long-term threat posed by a nuclear Iran, calling it the result of a “cost-benefit analysis.”

The problem here is not support for a strike from Persian Gulf nations; it is quite likely that, behind closed doors, there are few leaders in the region who would be even remotely troubled by a strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities. The calculus is the same: Which is more dangerous in the long-term – a strike against Iran, or a nuclear-armed Iran? No country in the Gulf region wants to see Iran take such an enormous step toward becoming a hegemonic power, and they are likely to accept that there is little that can stop them short of a military strike or sanctions so onerous that they would probably provoke an Iranian military response.

The real difficulty is that there are very few countries capable of conducting such a strike, no matter how necessary it is deemed. The United States and Israel would have the best chances, as each has a modern air force in the region capable of conducting a complex attack under difficult conditions. The Russians might be able to pull it off but have virtually no motivation to do so, and the British, French and Germans have the technology but not the numbers, regional presence or political will. The firestorm created by an Israeli strike would be tremendous, and would very likely cause Israel to face a major increase in terrorist activity from Iran’s Hamas and Hezbollah proxies in Gaza and Lebanon respectively. The simple fact is that, should the U.N. Security Council resolve tomorrow to destroy Iran’s nuclear program by force, everyone at the table would turn to the U.S. Ambassador.

Thus the U.S. seems once again to be the first, last and only resort. Most of the leaders in the Persian Gulf probably secretly hope the U.S. will simply do the deed and get it over with. This is their ideal set of circumstances: Iran’s power is diminished, the regional balance is restored, and the U.S. gets blamed for everything, allowing them the flexibility to manage popular discontent in their own countries. One hopes that American policy-makers are cognizant of how this scenario would play out; their reluctance to act more directly suggests that they are.

Yet American reticence and the inability of virtually every other interested country to carry out their own attack means that the Iranian program is able to continue. Increasingly strict financial sanctions against Iran and companies that deal with it will no doubt complicate Iranian planning, but as long as the world petroleum market provides an outlet for Iranian oil, resources to continue will be available. American efforts to build support in the U.N. are doomed to limited success, as the Russians and particularly the Chinese have too much to gain by staying on Iran’s good side; attempts to build a formal regional coalition to oppose Iran seem to be non-existent. Time is on the side of the Iranians, and the longer the crisis builds without strong direct opposition, the greater the chance that Iran will be able to successfully construct a weapon before the U.S. can move to stop it.

That leaves the Israelis, who are truly the wild card in this situation. There is little doubt that Israel regards a nuclear-armed Iran as nothing short of a mortal threat. How far are the Israelis willing to let Iran progress before they determine that they can wait no longer? One suspects that the Mossad is funneling support to the Iranian opposition movement, the Kurds, and any other group that might create trouble for the Iranian government, but suggesting that this alone could forestall the nuclear program smacks of desperation and wishful thinking of the first order. If Israel strikes, it will do so because it is doing the same exact calculations that led to the conclusions mentioned by the U.A.E. ambassador; the only difference being that Israel, unlike every other country in the region, can actually do something about threat posed by Iran.